The Thai government's ambitious target of 3.5 trillion baht in total tourism revenue for 2025 is looking increasingly precarious, prompting Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra to order a strategic rethink.
Initial hopes hinged on 2.32 trillion baht from the international market, attracting 39 to 40 million foreign tourists, alongside 1.17 trillion baht from 203 million domestic trips.
However, the Prime Minister has reportedly acknowledged the significant challenges in achieving the international revenue goal. A series of negative factors, most recently the earthquake in neighbouring Myanmar on 28th March, have dented confidence in Thailand's tourism sector.
In a meeting held on 11th April, the Prime Minister chaired discussions on the state of Thai tourism with the Ministry of Tourism and Sport, top brass from the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), and directors of TAT's global offices.
She instructed the Ministry and TAT to urgently devise methods to push international market earnings to 2 trillion baht – the same level achieved in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic, a record year that saw 39.8 million international arrivals.
Paetongtarn had previously championed 2025 as "Amazing Thailand Grand Tourism and Sports Year 2025," aiming to draw back nearly the same number of foreign tourists as in pre-pandemic 2019, targeting 40 million visitors with increased spending and longer stays.
However, recent figures have been disappointing, compounded by the unfortunate earthquake and building collapse incidents.
"The aim is to get international tourist revenue back to the 2019 level, up from the 1.67 trillion baht achieved in 2024," she stated, adding, "and we need answers on how to address the issues in the Chinese tourist market and where to find alternative visitors."
Furthermore, the Prime Minister called for new initiatives to bolster the market, with a greater emphasis on the luxury segment, requiring suitable high-end products and services.
Focus will also be placed on the health and wellness tourism sector, attracting long-stay visitors for relaxation and retirement, as well as digital nomads to encourage longer stays and increased spending.
Short-term, urgent measures to stimulate domestic tourism in both major and secondary cities are also being prioritised to inject more funds into the grassroots economy.
Tourism and Sports Minister Sermsak Pongpanit explained that the meeting involved a review of new Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and strategies for the latter half of the year, prioritising per-person expenditure over sheer visitor numbers.
"While the overall revenue target for 2025 remains 3.5 trillion baht, with 2.32 trillion baht from overseas visitors and 1.17 trillion baht from Thai tourists, the Prime Minister has tasked us with first ensuring we reach 2 trillion baht from the international market. Anything beyond that would be a bonus, especially after the earthquake caused a dip during the Songkran festival, although there has been a slight recovery," he noted.
The target for Chinese tourists, initially set at 8 million, has been revised downwards to the 2024 figure of 6.7 million after only 1.33 million arrivals in the first three months (January-March).
The focus will shift towards attracting higher-quality tourists, particularly from the luxury market in Shanghai.
Despite Europe being a popular destination for this demographic, efforts will be made to entice them to Thailand, alongside tapping into other promising markets such as the Middle East to compensate for the shortfall in Chinese visitors.
The Ministry of Tourism and Sport reported that international tourist arrivals in Thailand from 1st January to 13th April 2025 totalled 10,738,424, a modest increase of 0.94% compared to the same period last year. The top five source markets were China (1,470,834), Malaysia (1,333,596), Russia (801,532), India (631,820), and South Korea (533,752).
Specifically, Chinese tourist arrivals in the first quarter reached 1,331,434, a 24% decrease year-on-year. Monthly figures revealed that China was the top source market in January with 662,779 arrivals, a 30% increase due to the Chinese New Year period.
However, February saw a decline, with 371,542 Chinese arrivals (down 43%), placing China second after Malaysia. This dip was attributed to the disappearance of Chinese actress Xing Xing near the Thai-Myanmar border and the crackdown on call centre scams.
In March, while China was again the top source market with 297,113 arrivals, this represented a significant 48% decrease.
TAT Governor Thapanee Kiatphaibool stated that the agency needs to explore increasing tourist numbers from nine potential short-haul markets requiring immediate attention and 15 long-haul markets to offset the decline in Chinese visitors.
"TAT must identify other markets to compensate in terms of both numbers and per-trip spending by offering new tourism products and incorporating other aspects such as soft power, alongside employing new and more targeted approaches," she explained.
For the Chinese market, the primary strategy for the remainder of the year involves organising promotional roadshows in China and implementing classic marketing tactics to attract group tours and incentive travel, particularly from secondary cities in 30 provinces that may not have previously visited Thailand.
The aim is to showcase the quality, experiences, and safety of Thai tourism.
A workshop is planned for April to gather feedback from the private sector on their needs and required support to bolster emerging markets such as art, gaming, e-sports, film, and health tourism. Additionally, new travel segments like train journeys, cross-border land travel, and car caravans will be promoted.
"The goal is to attract tourists from the mass market, niche markets, and sub-culture groups. Even if some niche markets are small, their high spending potential makes them valuable," Thapanee concluded.
